Thursday, April 18, 2019

Commentary: Can Abiy Ahmed Continue to Remodel Ethiopia? (expanded version) Addis Standard

Abel Abate Demissie & Ahmed Soliman

The prime minister has made great strides at reforming the authoritarian state in his first year. But how will he confront the hurdles ahead?

Addis Abeba, April 17/2019 – It has been a whirlwind year for Ethiopia since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. He has initiated a raft of reforms to overhaul Ethiopia’s authoritarian government structure, significantly improved relations with neighbors and received widespread international acclaim, including a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the same period has seen a sharp increase in lawlessness, intensified domestic conflict, heightened identity-based violence and huge internal displacement.

The fervor of ‘Abiymania’ has waned in recent months, as the reality of the monumental tests that lie ahead hit home. Having created massive expectations among competing constituencies, there are growing fears that Abiy’s reforms might end up achieving neither good governance nor stability. To date his accomplishments far outweigh his shortcomings. But significant tests lie ahead.
For his government’s undoubted successes to be built on, the prime minister needs to re-double focus on the domestic agenda. This includes dealing with the growing unrest, revitalizing the ruling party under a common vision and detailing a strategy for institutionalizing political, judicial, security, economic and social reforms. This restructure will require well targeted and sequenced plans, along with his unifying philosophy of Medemer, especially given continued institutional capacity constraints.


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ጠ/ሚ አብይ አህመድ ኢትዮጵያን በለውጥ ሃዲድ ያስቀጥሉ ይሆን? Chatham House article

Abel Abate and Ahmed Soliman

ከጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር አብይ ወደ ስልጣን መምጣት ወዲህ ኢትዮጵያ በፈጣን የለውጥ ጎዳና ላይ ትገኛለች፡፡ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ መጠነ ሰፊ የማሻሻያ እርምጃዎችን በመውሰድ አምባገነን የነበረውን የመንግስት መዋቅር ከመቀየር አንስቶ ኢትዮጵያ በአካባቢው ከሚገኙ አገራት ጋር የነበራትን ግንኙነት በማሻሻላቸው ከፍተኛ አለም አቀፍ እውቅና ተችሯቸዋል፡፡ በዚህም ምክንያት ለዚህ አመት የኖቤል የሰላም ሽልማት ሁሉ ለመታጨት በቅተዋል፡፡ በአንጻሩ ደግሞ ከፍተኛ ሊባል የሚችል ህገ ወጥነት፣ በክልሎች ውስጥና በክልሎች መካከል የቀጠለ ግጭት፣ ማንነትን መሰረት ያደረጉ ጥቃቶችና ከፍተኛ የሃገር ውስጥ መፈናቀል ተከስቷል፡፡

በዚህም ምክንያት በመጀመሪያዎቹ የስልጣን ወራት ለጠ/ሚሩ የተቸረው እጅግ ከፍተኛ የህዝብ ድጋፍ በተለያዩ የሃገሪቱ ክፍሎች ባጋጠሙ ቀውሶች ምክንያት በቅርብ ጊዜያት ውስጥ መቀዛቀዝ ተስተውሎበታል፡፡ በተለያዩ የህብረተሰብ ክፍሎች ዘንድ፣ በአንዳንድ ተጻራሪ አመለካከት ባላቸው አካላት ጭምር፣ ከፍተኛ የለውጥ ፍላጎትን የቀሰቀሰው የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ የስልጣን ጉዞ ከታሰበው በተቃራኒ መልካም አስተዳደርም ሆነ ሰላምን ሳያመጣ እንዳይከሽፍ ብዙዎች ይሰጋሉ፡፡ ቢያንስ ግን እስካሁን ባለው ነባራዊ ሁኔታ የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ ስኬቶች ከችግሮቻቸው ልቀው ይታያሉ፣ ከባድ ፈተናዎቸ ከፊት ለፊት መኖራቸውን ሳይካድ፡፡


Read more on Chatham House website

Can Abiy Ahmed Continue to Remodel Ethiopia? Chatham House article


Ahmed Soliman and Abel Abate Demissie
The prime minister has made great strides at reforming the authoritarian state in his first year. But how will he confront the hurdles ahead?

It has been a whirlwind year for Ethiopia since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. He has initiated a raft of reforms to overhaul Ethiopia’s authoritarian government structure, significantly improved relations with neighbours and received widespread international acclaim, including a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the same period has seen a sharp increase in lawlessness, intensified domestic conflict, heightened identity-based violence and huge internal displacement.
The fervour of ‘Abiymania’ has waned in recent months, as the reality of the monumental tests that lie ahead hit home. Having created massive expectations among competing constituencies, there are growing fears that Abiy’s reforms might end up achieving neither good governance nor stability. To date, his accomplishments far outweigh his shortcomings. But significant tests lie ahead.

Read more at Chatham House