Thursday, April 18, 2019

Commentary: Can Abiy Ahmed Continue to Remodel Ethiopia? (expanded version) Addis Standard

Abel Abate Demissie & Ahmed Soliman

The prime minister has made great strides at reforming the authoritarian state in his first year. But how will he confront the hurdles ahead?

Addis Abeba, April 17/2019 – It has been a whirlwind year for Ethiopia since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. He has initiated a raft of reforms to overhaul Ethiopia’s authoritarian government structure, significantly improved relations with neighbors and received widespread international acclaim, including a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the same period has seen a sharp increase in lawlessness, intensified domestic conflict, heightened identity-based violence and huge internal displacement.

The fervor of ‘Abiymania’ has waned in recent months, as the reality of the monumental tests that lie ahead hit home. Having created massive expectations among competing constituencies, there are growing fears that Abiy’s reforms might end up achieving neither good governance nor stability. To date his accomplishments far outweigh his shortcomings. But significant tests lie ahead.
For his government’s undoubted successes to be built on, the prime minister needs to re-double focus on the domestic agenda. This includes dealing with the growing unrest, revitalizing the ruling party under a common vision and detailing a strategy for institutionalizing political, judicial, security, economic and social reforms. This restructure will require well targeted and sequenced plans, along with his unifying philosophy of Medemer, especially given continued institutional capacity constraints.


Read more on Addis Standard

ጠ/ሚ አብይ አህመድ ኢትዮጵያን በለውጥ ሃዲድ ያስቀጥሉ ይሆን? Chatham House article

Abel Abate and Ahmed Soliman

ከጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር አብይ ወደ ስልጣን መምጣት ወዲህ ኢትዮጵያ በፈጣን የለውጥ ጎዳና ላይ ትገኛለች፡፡ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ መጠነ ሰፊ የማሻሻያ እርምጃዎችን በመውሰድ አምባገነን የነበረውን የመንግስት መዋቅር ከመቀየር አንስቶ ኢትዮጵያ በአካባቢው ከሚገኙ አገራት ጋር የነበራትን ግንኙነት በማሻሻላቸው ከፍተኛ አለም አቀፍ እውቅና ተችሯቸዋል፡፡ በዚህም ምክንያት ለዚህ አመት የኖቤል የሰላም ሽልማት ሁሉ ለመታጨት በቅተዋል፡፡ በአንጻሩ ደግሞ ከፍተኛ ሊባል የሚችል ህገ ወጥነት፣ በክልሎች ውስጥና በክልሎች መካከል የቀጠለ ግጭት፣ ማንነትን መሰረት ያደረጉ ጥቃቶችና ከፍተኛ የሃገር ውስጥ መፈናቀል ተከስቷል፡፡

በዚህም ምክንያት በመጀመሪያዎቹ የስልጣን ወራት ለጠ/ሚሩ የተቸረው እጅግ ከፍተኛ የህዝብ ድጋፍ በተለያዩ የሃገሪቱ ክፍሎች ባጋጠሙ ቀውሶች ምክንያት በቅርብ ጊዜያት ውስጥ መቀዛቀዝ ተስተውሎበታል፡፡ በተለያዩ የህብረተሰብ ክፍሎች ዘንድ፣ በአንዳንድ ተጻራሪ አመለካከት ባላቸው አካላት ጭምር፣ ከፍተኛ የለውጥ ፍላጎትን የቀሰቀሰው የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ የስልጣን ጉዞ ከታሰበው በተቃራኒ መልካም አስተዳደርም ሆነ ሰላምን ሳያመጣ እንዳይከሽፍ ብዙዎች ይሰጋሉ፡፡ ቢያንስ ግን እስካሁን ባለው ነባራዊ ሁኔታ የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ ስኬቶች ከችግሮቻቸው ልቀው ይታያሉ፣ ከባድ ፈተናዎቸ ከፊት ለፊት መኖራቸውን ሳይካድ፡፡


Read more on Chatham House website

Can Abiy Ahmed Continue to Remodel Ethiopia? Chatham House article


Ahmed Soliman and Abel Abate Demissie
The prime minister has made great strides at reforming the authoritarian state in his first year. But how will he confront the hurdles ahead?

It has been a whirlwind year for Ethiopia since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. He has initiated a raft of reforms to overhaul Ethiopia’s authoritarian government structure, significantly improved relations with neighbours and received widespread international acclaim, including a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the same period has seen a sharp increase in lawlessness, intensified domestic conflict, heightened identity-based violence and huge internal displacement.
The fervour of ‘Abiymania’ has waned in recent months, as the reality of the monumental tests that lie ahead hit home. Having created massive expectations among competing constituencies, there are growing fears that Abiy’s reforms might end up achieving neither good governance nor stability. To date, his accomplishments far outweigh his shortcomings. But significant tests lie ahead.

Read more at Chatham House

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Ethiopia and the AU: Special Responsibilities of a Host Nation

Mehari T. Maru and Abel Abate Demissie
 
This paper examines Ethiopia’s policy on the African Union (AU), and its predecessor—the OAU both as founding member and hosting nation. By defining what constitutes a grand strategy, as opposed to an ad hoc approach in pursuing national interest in a multilateral setting, the paper attempts to answer seven fundamental questions: (i) Has Ethiopia ever had a grand strategy regarding the OAU/AU, and if so, what are or were the main tenants of such a grand strategy or policy? (ii) Are there points of convergence and divergence in the policies of the three regimes of Emperor Haile Selassie, Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn in respect of their policies toward the OAU/AU? (iii) Which of Ethiopia’s state institutions currently guide and formulate policies and decisions with regard to the AU and Pan African Community Organizations? (iv) How does Ethiopia’s approach to the AU differ from other key regional players such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Algeria? (vi) The Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) refers to the ‘special responsibilities of Ethiopia’ to the AU. What do ‘special responsibilities’ entail? (vii) Does Ethiopia have a hosting country policy? Is a there a need for a host nation policy? if there is such a need, what considerations should Ethiopia take into account in formulating a grand strategic toward the AU and a host nation policy? and (viii) by way of policy recommendations, what considerations should Ethiopia take into account in formulating a grand strategy and host nation policy? 

#Ethiopia #Africa_Union #IGAD #MFA #HostNation
 
Read the whole paper https://fes-ethiopia.org/1874