Abel Abate Demissie: March 2013

Friday, March 15, 2013

Eritrea: an oblivious ticking bomb in the Horn of Africa May 2014

Abel Abate Demissie

The Horn of Africa region is one of the most conflict ridden regions in the world. The region has been gripped by several inter and intra state conflicts since long. The ongoing conflict in Sudan, the mass carnage happening in South Sudan, the failure of government in Somalia contributed a lot to the ongoing human tragedy in the region. While the world is busy of playing a fighter fighter role in those mentioned countries, Eritrea, which seems to be either forgotten or did not get enough attention by the world looks slipping in to deeper political quagmire quicker than any time ever.

In the last two years there were several rumours that President Isaias Afewerki the first and the only President that the young nation knows has been in a very poor health condition. The most recent speculation was fuelled after his disappearance from the public scene in the late 2013. Even if such kind of speculation is not strange for the 69 years old ailing leader, it appears to be always vague on who is going to succeed the strong man and what would going to happen to the tiny, impoverished and war thorn Horn-Africa nation after 23 years of iron fist rule of President Isaias Afewerki and the only legitimate political party of his, the Peoples’ Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). More unfortunately, Ethiopia, which is going to be the first country to be impacted by any form of political change in Asmara is reluctant to play a proactive role in helping to make the inevitable change to be in favour of the regional peace in general and Eritreans peace and democracy in particular.

Showing a further sign of fragility and desperation, defections have been increasing in Eritrea from time to time among different segments of the society. Aside to the thousands of refugees flowing to Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen; in the last six months alone, a famous pro-PFDJ singer, Yohannes Tikabo (WediTikabo) has been defected to the US and other three Eritrean pilots have been reported to be defected to Saudi Arabia.

Gaining independence from Ethiopia in 1991, Eritrea has been engaged in to a series of conflicts with all its neighbours, most of the time, under the pretext of a border dispute. The country breaks diplomatic ties with Sudan in 1994, waged war against Yemen on 1996, engaged into a bloody war with Ethiopia between 1998 and 2000 and finally engaged in to small skirmishes and diplomatic row with its southern neighbour, Djibouti, between 2007 and 2008.

In addition to the above disputes, the actions of Eritrean government have isolated the country internationally. Eritrea boycotted the AU for more than a decade and only reinstated its ambassador to the AU in January 2011, fiercely protesting what it described as the AU’s ‘failure’ to condemn Ethiopia for its alleged violations of a peace agreement that ended the 1998-2000 border war. Additionally, the Asmara regime withdrew its membership of IGAD, East Africa’s primary regional body, after a rift with its ‘arch-foe’, Ethiopia, when a meeting on Somalia threatened to divide the region in 2007.and its wish to be reinstated once again have not been accepted by the member states yet.

In addition to this, the imposition of the UN Security Council sanctions on Eritrea, which included arms and travel sanctions for Eritrea's support of insurgents trying to topple the nascent government in Somalia, was a severe blow to Eritrea. It is significant too that for the first time since their establishment, the AU and IGAD called upon the United Nations to introduce sanctions against a member state. Due to the ill-conceived political strategies of the Asmara regime, the country's image has been tarnished. The behaviour of Eritrea has prompted at least one observer and scholar to refer to Eritrea as the 'North Korea of Africa'.

Despite, there is a wide consensus that the war with Ethiopia was a game changer in Eritrea. Following the war, President Isaias Afewerki shortly arrested his senior officials who demanded the constitution to be implemented and to put a limit on the powers of the President. He then ceased private Medias, Civil Society Organizations and any opposition voices one from another. Since then President Isaias Afewerki has been a micro manager and uncontested ‘lifelong’ leader in a country that doesn’t have a parliament, a Prime Minister and even a Vice President.

President Isaias Afewerki, who is well known for his Machiavellian leadership technique since the arm struggle period, has not been hinted who his successor would be and when would he relinquish his power yet. According to sources in Asmara, this is further instigating the power struggle among his loyalists who have already been seeing each other with utter suspicion and deep animosity.

There might be some fundamental explanations on why there is no clue on who is going to succeed President Isaias Afewerki. The first one could be Isaias’s desire to cling on power to the end. However, others argue that living with the same senior government officials and army leaders who attempted the failed coup d’etat against him on January 21, 2013, President Isaias has neither the will nor the ability to transform the country into democracy and peaceful power transition.

Without having any viable state institutions and amidst of deep feud and animosity among leadership circle, Eritrea has the possibility of slipping into deeper political quagmire following the downfall of Isaias Afewerki, either by death or by the army led coup d’etat.

Putting salt in to injury, the Horn of Africa region, the most war ridden and conflict prone region in the world, couldn’t afford another state failure in the region. The possible collapse of the post Isaias Eritrean state may be a safe haven to the international jihadists and terrorists who have been sought another refuge after the successful joint military operation by the African Union forces, the neighbouring states and the Somalia government.

More than any neighbours in the region however, the future of Eritrea will definitely highly impact its southern neighbour Ethiopia, due to the strong people-to-people relations among the two nations. Ethiopia, which has been playing a pivotal role in pacifying the region and helping to revive a strong government in Somalia, may not cope the failure of state in its Northern territory.

PM Hailemariam at Helm of “Emerging Giant” Dependable Operating Ground, But Formidable Challenges Remain Challenges of PM Hailemariam Desalegn

Since the illness of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was reported for the first time in July 2012, we have heard of several speculations and analyses about alleged political quagmire and deep division within the ruling Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Some analysts even went too far to predict that the country was on the brink of disintegration claiming the ‘internal feud within the party and the absence of clear successor as the late premier was the alpha and omega decision maker and the master mind of all activities’.

Supportive Ground

However, the reverse is happening since the death of PM Meles Zenawi back to 20 August 2012. In line with the constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) article 75, the Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn took the duties of Mr. Meles immediately until his assignment was officially endorsed by the national parliament on 21 September 2012. The stalemate in bureaucracy, significant security problem and allegedly deep fracture within the party, the state and the government has not been seen so far. There may be several reasons for the peaceful and constitutional nature of power transfer that has happened for the first time in the country’s modern history. However, the increasing maturity of the democratic institutions (DIs) including the House of Peoples’ Representative and the House of Federations’, the willingness and commitment shown by many senior government officials to preserve the constitution and the decentralization of power and authority with the regions and lower forms of administrations contributed a lot to this effect.

On 16 October 2012, the newly appointed Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn responds on the questions raised from the members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives.. The new Prime Minister had refreshing and masterly answers to concerns about a wide range of issues including the soaring inflation, the Nile dam project, quality of education, the planned railway project and good governance. In his presentation, the Premier admitted inflation persists as one of the major challenges of his administration. Regarding the Nile dam project he said more than 11 percent of the project had been executed and the project would be finalized according to plan. He also granted lack of good governance as being a major challenge for his administration.

If we compare the first days of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn with the long-time performance of his predecessor, (since comparison is unavoidable), differences are a matter of reality. The obvious difference has to do with personal traits. Furthermore, when a huge and significant difference in several aspects. Mr. Meles was assigned as the President of the Transitional Government of Ethiopia in 1991, the main priorities of the general public towards the government were merely very basic ones, including the need to end the arbitrary killings and massive imprisonment without any trial, to ensure a relative peace and stability across the country, to defuse tensions and conflicts across the country mainly along ethic and ideological lines and most importantly to save the country from explosion and disintegration into many pieces.

Of course, the late Premier achieved astonishing results in many aspects of the above mentioned areas and beyond. He tried to establish ‘free and fair’ justice system at least in relative terms. We don’t often hear now imprisonments without the court knowledge and arrest warrant issued. Of course, we often hear imprisonments along political lines and for simply exercising constitutional rights. It is also obvious that the procedures on their own only do not prevent illegal activities absolutely; rather, accountability in the administration of justice remains a valid concern.

In terms of ensuring peace and stability, the late Premier has a great deal to his credit. Today, Ethiopia is considered one of the safest places in Africa by many foreigners and diplomatic communities. The pacification work has been done on two tracks. One was through establishing and developing a capable security force to avoid and mitigate possible attacks by the armed groups within or outside the country. In this regard, the country has achieved commendable results mainly after the surprising attack of the Eritrean government back in 1998. Since then the Defense Ministry has been advancing itself both in manpower and technologies. The other method employed was through dialogue and negotiation with the opposition groups and armed rebels across the country. For this mission, the Meles administration has used religious leaders and local elders as the main peace brokers.

Meles was also successful in defusing ethnic tensions significantly in the past two decades. The Federal form of government that puts in place the organizing principles of the Constitution in 1995 contributed a lot for this effect. Since then the power accumulated in the hands of the central government have been devolved to the regional states and city administrations with a relative freedom of self administration. Different ethnic groups also have gained their right to be judged, schooled through their chosen means of communication and develop their languages alongside promoting their cultures. The country which was expected to explode with the problem of ethnicity twenty years ago is successfully managed to mitigate the problem under Meles administration.

Meles was also very successful in crafting a new form of developmental state ideology that pulls millions of people out of severe poverty. The success registered with micro and small scale industries, the double digit economic growth registered for the past eight years, the inception and execution of large scale projects (like hydro-electric dams) are the few that can be mentioned as positive developments under PM Meles Zenawi’s achievements which have been reinforced by perceptions of world leaders as an inspirational and iconic de-facto leader of Africa.

Challenges

The new Prime Minister has taken over a totally different Ethiopia compared to its conditions in the early ‘90s. Today’s Ethiopia is not a hopeless, shattered state with poverty and brutal dictatorship. Rather; it is the country with promising future in economy, democracy and social development. Therefore, the expectations are also big and different by now. Now the demand is not about ending arbitrary killings and massacre across the country as it was when Mr. Meles, took the helm of power, but to ensure further openness, accountability and rule of law in the country. Ensuring good governance mainly in the lower forms of government administrations and combating corruption towards it elimination are also the other major expectation of the new Premier alongside with effective and democratic handlings of religious and ethnic based demands.

Today, PM Hailemariam is not expected only to bring bread for the survival of the population for a single day rather to maintain or increase the double digit economic growth and fair distribution of wealth among the society. The new Premier is expected to further reduce the rate of inflation in the coming few months. As Mr. Hailemariam has a burden of effectively executing the blueprints of the late Premier, such as the ambitious plan (widely known as the Growth and Transformation Plan) People are also expecting him to adopt his own big development projects that would effectively reflect his legacy in the future. Equally important is the fact that people in and outside Ethiopia will eager to watch how PM Hailemariam maintains an enhanced posture attained by the late Premier on the regional, continental and international planes with particular reference to Ethiopia’s role in the Inter governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) the African Union the United Nations.

Real and Outstanding Developments Related to the Nile

As experts from Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt met to discuss an under-construction Ethiopian hydropower project, a Wikileaks report stated that Egyptian authorities reached an agreement with Khartoum to build an airbase in Sudan, to launch attacks on Ethiopian dam facilities.
Although denied by Cairo, the information allegedly from the Texas-based global intelligence company, Stratfor, is a stark reminder of the high stakes involved in Nile Basin politics. The reason is the vital importance of the Nile to Egypt and the threat it sees from a more assertive stance from upstream nations, particularly a resurgent Ethiopia.
As the Greek philosopher and historian, Herodotus, declared, Egypt has the ‘gift’ of the Nile. This ‘gift’ has made it easy for Egyptians to produce agricultural products in fertile soil near areas where much of the country consists of dry desert land.
The river has played an extremely important role in the civilization, life and history of Egypt. The most important benefit of the Nile is its fertile soil that is transported from the highlands of Ethiopia, which contributes more than 85 percent of the river’s water.
According to reports Wikileaks has leaked which quote the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon said in 2010 his nation would do anything to prevent the secession of South Sudan - which became independent last year - because of the political implications it will have for Egypt’s access to the Nile.
This leak was released as a ten-member committee of experts and professionals from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia began to discuss the possible impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which started to be built around 30 kilometers from the Sudanese border in April 2011
At 6,650 kilometers, the Nile is the longest river in the world. The White Nile rises in the Great Lakes region, with its source in Burundi. It passes through Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and South Sudan. The Blue Nile starts at Lake Tana in Ethiopia and flows through Khartoum where the two rivers meet on their way to Egypt. The Nile region is home to more than 160 million people, growing at 2–3% per year.
Many upper Nile countries have accused Egypt of mismanagement of the river and of preventing them from development projects. Egypt argues that it has historic veto power on the basis of the agreements of the colonial-era in 1929 and 1959, even though no water-producing country in the upper basin region was consulted during the process.
The 1929 agreement was signed between Britain and Egypt. In order to incorporate Sudan, the 1959 agreement was signed between Egypt and newly-independent Sudan to allocate 55.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of water for Egypt and 18.5 bcm for Sudan. The result is that Ethiopia, the main source of the Nile, is permitted to use only 1 bcm.
In 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was established by riparian countries to develop the river in a cooperative manner. Its members are Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic Congo, Burundi and Rwanda, with Eritrea as an observer.
The NBI did not achieve tangible progress until 2010, when four of its members met in Kampala to sign the Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) treaty. The host country, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia signed, followed shortly by Kenya. Burundi signed the CFA in February 2011. The move was considered as a protest against the 1929 and 1959 agreements that gave Egypt and Sudan rights to use 90 per cent of the Nile’s water.
The new stance partly stems from almost all upper basin countries registering significant economic growth and relative stability. For example, Ethiopia, which contributes more than 85 percent of the water of the Blue Nile, claims double-digit economic growth in the past decade. The country needs to exploit unused water resources, including the Nile, to sustain this growth.
Most of the upper-riparian countries would also like to use the river to generate hydroelectric power and for irrigated agriculture. Current electricity shortages throughout the region threaten to hold back economies.
In April 2011, Ethiopia announced its plan to build the 6,000 megawatt Renaissance dam.. The reservoir will be the largest water-body in Ethiopia, with a capacity of 63 billion cubic meters water, twice the size of the largest natural lake in, Lake Tana. At the launch for the project, the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said it would cost about 80 billion Birr (about 4.8 Billion
USD) that twould be covered domestically. This was because Egypt had successfully lobbied against Ethiopia receiving access to external loans and grants. Uganda and South Sudan followed with plans for the same kind of hydro-electric development on the White Nile River in South Sudan.
The decision to begin utilizing the Nile should allow Ethiopia - which has up to 5.7 million hectares of potentially irrigable land, of which 2.3 million hectares is in the main Blue Nile basin - to add to the 160,000 hectares currently being irrigated.
In order to negotiate his country’s ‘right’ to Nile river resources, the former Egyptian transitional government Prime Minister, Essam Sharaf, visited South Sudan last year and pledged to extend support and assistance to that future country. Another delegation travelled to Uganda and met with President Yuweri Museveni to convince him not to not to reduce the flow of the river. It does not seem that the efforts heralded much success.
However, it can be argue that, the new Egyptian government is partially succeeding in strengthening cooperation with upper riparian countries, in contrast to the actions of the former Mubarak government.
In late April 2011, a 48-member Egyptian delegation, including three presidential candidates, visited Ethiopia and discussed the Nile issue with several officials including Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Both sides said the meeting was fruitful and represented a cornerstone for future cooperation. The unexpected benefit for the visiting delegations was that Ethiopia agreed to postpone the ratification of the new CFA treaty.
In return, the late Ethiopian Prime Minister visited Egypt in September and agreed to create the trilateral committee to look at the new dam project. During his visit Meles met with several former top officials including Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, Commander in Chief and Chairman of of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf and several officials and businessmen. The visit was considered an important step in strengthening the relationship.
However, if Egyptians really want to achieve a lasting ‘win-win’ solution it must commit itself to negotiate and discuss Nile water usage with upper basin countries on the basis of mutual
trust and respect. One area of concern for Ethiopia and its allies is that the unused water that regularly evaporates from Egypt’s poorly planned Aswan dam is estimated to exceed 10 bcm per annum.
Egypt and Sudan should offer assistance on upper basin projects, using their better experience and capacity. In addition, the international community needs to offer to mediate disagreements and build the capacity and autonomy of the Nile Basin Initiative.
Such efforts will hopefully mean that contingency plans for air strikes on Ethiopian dams remain unused on the desks of Egyptian military planners.
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Abel Abate is a Researcher at Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development (EIIPD) and he can be reached by abel.eiipd@gmail.

The Absence of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi And its implications

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The Absence of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
And its implications
What makes the party, the government and the state to continue in the
Absence of the Premier?
It has been more than seven weeks since Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has
been absent from public scene. There are many speculations about his health
status, where he is and how long he will stay out of public view.
On 19 July and 01 August 2012 Government Communication Minister Bereket
Simon told journalists that the Prime Minister was getting treatment abroad for
the ‘minor’ health problem he has faced and he would be back within a few
days. Mr. Bereket further said that nobody is assigned on the post of the Prime
Minister either temporarily or on a permanent basis and Mr. Meles is still In
charge of his activities. The Communication Minister also hinted that Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi may take a lengthy leave from his activities upon the
doctor’s advice, as he had been working restlessly for more than three decades,
since he joined the arm struggle to fight the Derg regime.
The aim of this brief piece is not to add on the speculations in the public.
Rather, the intention is to explain what I think is novel in the political history
of Ethiopia. For many people the Prime Minister was the only person who
guarantees the proper functioning of the state, the government and the party.
In the past two decades many people believed that if the head of the party was
not stable or unable to govern the country, there would be a crisis that affects
the government and the party.
Why did not this happen during the past five weeks or more? What held the
state, government and the party together in the absence of the Prime Minister?
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Were the speculations and analysis of the many people particularly in the
Diaspora wrong? Is the concern of many citizens in the country ill placed?
The past many days have proved that the absence of the Head of government
from the public scene does not necessarily lead to fracture in the party
triggering political wrangling in the government or political crisis in the
country, at least so far.
My understanding is that the existing institutions are fast maturing to act and
function in the absence of the Prime Minister, contrary to traditional perception
in Ethiopia, to the effect that, it is very difficult to think of a stable and
peaceful Ethiopia in the absence of its leader. Though, Prime Minister Meles
has not been seen in public for the last several weeks albeit that he is incharge
according to Government Communication Office, we have seen neither a
significant political vacuum nor stalemate of the bureaucracy so far. And I
believe the main reasons for this stability and continuity in the government are
rooted in the strength of the organizing principles of state power, among which
the following are key factors.
The Federal Form of Government, the party structure and the
Constitution:
Unlike the previous regimes in Ethiopia the current federal form of government
has devolved accumulated power to the regional states, which are the integral
parts of the country. The 1995 constitution in article eight, number one clearly
stipulates that all sovereign power resides in the nations, nationalities and
peoples of Ethiopia.
The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is even
a reflection of this federal system. It is an alliance of four national groups: the
Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National
Democratic Movement (ANDM), the South Ethiopian Peoples' Democratic Front
(SEPDF) and the Tigrayan Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF). The most important
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power in the party is in the hands of the Executive Committee (EC) which are
thirty six, consisted of equal numbers of representatives of the four member
parties, which are elected by the Central Committee of the respective member
organizations making up the EPRDF.
Therefore, this creates, more or less a ‘fair’ distribution of power among EPRDF
member parties that prohibits the rise of one group over the other. This also
creates the absence of ‘strong man’ without Meles Zenawi; and other officials
are only becoming responsible for their own duties and responsibilities.
And when we come to our case, Article 75 (a) and (b) of the Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia constitution, explicitly provides that the Deputy Prime
Minister will act on behalf of the Prime Minister in the latter’s absence, unless
or otherwise the parliament proposed another candidate for the post. Therefore
there is no confusion on the constitution regarding who will overtake
leadership of the country (either temporarily or on a permanent basis) in the
absence of the Head of Government. Therefore, it can be concluded that it is
impossible to seize or snatch power without the constitutional order and the
backing of the regional states, contrary to known traditional practice in the
country.
Institutions of the Management of Power
Parliament as an embodiment of sovereignty of the people, with powers and
duties to determine the leadership and other components of state affairs
management normal state business is on course with each part of the
bureaucracy conducting its regular functions.
A Security and Defense Forces based on Professionalism
It is common knowledge that armed forces take advantage of temptations to
seize power, whatever pretexts present themselves. However, the EPRDF-led
government seems to have organized a national defense force with a doctrine
that emphasize professionalism in the defense of the state, the constitutional
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order and the institutions of security for the populace. In other words, the
forces of national defense are poised as deterrence to any violent, illegal or
unconstitutional grab of power or any other way that disrupts the procedures
established by the Constitution.
The recent handling of ethnic clashes in the Southern part of the country was a
testament for the National Security and Defense Council on how such kind of
institutions are acting independently without direct involvement of the
Commander in Chief and the Prime Minister of the country. Thus, foreign
forces who wish to undermine the country’s security, like the Eritrean regime
and the Islamist Somali group Alshabab have not gained any advantage out of
this, and the country is continuing to be an icon of stability and peace in the
war torn region of the Horn of Africa.
For your comments and queries the writer can be reached at:
abel.eiipd@gmail.com

East Africa: What's Next for Al-Qaida in the Horn of Africa?

Addis Ababa — US president Barack Obama announced the death of Osama Bin Laden, the world's most wanted terrorist on Monday May 2, 2011. From 2001 to 2011 Bin Laden was a major target of the War on Terror, which has resulted in a total of between 80,000 and 1.2 million civilian deaths in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.

The news was a relief for many people across the world including those who have suffered from al-Qaida's indiscriminate killings and injuries in the Horn of Africa.

Both Bin Laden and his terrorist organisation, al-Qaida, have historical links to the Horn of Africa region. Osama Bin Laden actually became one of the world's most wanted terrorists when he resided in Sudan from 1991 up to 1996. During this period, al-Qaida established connections with other terrorist organizations with the help of its Sudanese hosts and Iran.

While Bin Laden was in Sudan, Al-Qaida was involved in several terror attacks, including the bombing of two hotels in Aden, Yemen, where the main targets were American troops en route to Somalia on a humanitarian and peace keeping mission. Al-Qaida also gave massive assistance to Somali militias whose efforts resulted in the eventual withdrawal of U.S forces in 1994. In addition, Osama bin Laden is also linked to the assassination attempt against former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in Ethiopia in June 1995.

It can be argued that Al-Qaida has had greater success in the Horn of Africa than in any other part of Sub-Saharan Africa because of the relative proximity to the Middle East, the presence of a large Muslim community and the region's relative instability, particularly in Sudan and Somalia.

In August 1998, an Al-Qaida group carried out bomb attacks on the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The two terrorist attacks resulted in the deaths of over 220 people, mainly Africans, and more than 5000 injuries. Moreover, Al-Qaida bombed an Israeli owned hotel in Mombasa Kenya in 2002 and killed 15 people. On the same day, two missiles narrowly missed a chartered Israeli Arkia Boeing 757 carrying 261 passengers on take-off from the Mombasa airport.

After the hotel bombings, the US opened a joint operation with its allies in the region to capture the terrorists involved. However, most of the suspects fled to Somalia where its lack of government and virtual collapse made the country a relatively safe haven for many international terrorists.

Since 2000, exiled al-Qaida terrorists in Somalia have established strong links with warlords and different religious leaders in the country. They were also the main architects of the formation of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), the group that gained control of Mogadishu in 2006. The UIC was composed of eleven autonomous religious courts in Somalia.

The mastermind behind this group was Hassan Dahir Aweys, wanted by the U.S. government for involvement in al Qaida activities. Aweys and his allies shrewdly co-opted indigenous Islamist movements for their own criminal purposes under the guise of restoring order to Somalia. Aweys' ties to Somali terrorists goes back to the early 1990s, when he was part of the al Qaida-backed United Islam (al-Ittihad al-Islamiya), the predecessor of the Islamic Courts Union (al-Ittihad Mahakem al-Islamiya).

The rise of extremism in Somali politics has become a threat for not only the U.S and Europe, but also for neighboring African countries, especially those with a large Somali population such as Ethiopia and Djibouti. In 2006 al-Qaida inspired the UIC to declare Jihad against Ethiopia for its support for the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia that is backed by the international community. In December 2006, at the invitation of the TFG, Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia and eventually captured the capital, Mogadishu, driving the UIC from power.

However, after the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops in December 2008, al-Qaida linked Islamists joined Al Shabaab to recapture many parts of Somalia, including parts of the city of Mogadishu. The threat posed by Al Shabaab was not limited to Somalia. An illustration of its regional reach was demonstrated by the 7/11 bombings in Kampala, Uganda in July 2010, where more than 75 civilians were killed and many more were injured. Additionally, in January 2010 the group admitted its affiliation with al-Qaida when it declared that the jihad in the Horn of Africa must be combined with the international jihad led by the al-Qaeda network. On 2 May, 2011 an Al-Shabaab spokesperson threatened revenge attacks for Bin Laden's death.

"The Americans have previously killed other Islamist leaders ... (whose) students will continue the jihad and we shall retaliate against the Americans, Israel, Europe and Christians in Somalia with destructive explosions," said Mohamed Osman Arus.

On the other hand, many governments in the Horn of Africa are hailing the death of Osama Bin Laden. The Kenyan president, Mwai Kibaki, described bin Laden's death as "an act of justice", whereas his Ugandan counterpart described the terrorist's death as a "momentous event". On 4 May, a security advisor for the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Tsegay Berhe, noted that Osama Bin Laden's death also weakens Al Shabaab.

However, when we look at the impact of Bin Laden's death in the Horn of Africa; psychologically it is a big blow for many terrorist organizations including Al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam. The Navy Seals eliminated an iconic figure from which such organizations have drawn inspiration and symbolism. What Bin Laden represented for Al Shabaab and other terrorist groups has been largely diminished as a result of his death.

These groups may try to undertake further terrorist attacks, particularly in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, countries that are widely perceived by such groups to be supportive of the U.S government. If they should try to do so, their purpose will include the need to avenge the killing of Osama Bin laden and to show the world that they have the will and capability to damage the stability and security of the Horn of Africa.

However, the impact of Bin laden's death on Al Shabaab, both ideologically and operationally, is far from clear. It is difficult to gauge because these groups have never maintained formal organizational links with al-Qaida. Most of their leaders are local people who have strong anti-American sentiments and merely drew inspiration from Osama bin Laden.

Perhaps, in ideological terms at least, they will continue to follow and draw from the narrative and ideology that al-Qaida and their late leader established during the past decade or more. Yet, it cannot be doubted that the global leadership void that Bin laden's death has left will in time temper both the ideology and operational capability of Al Shabaab.

One can never be entirely certain, but we can hope that the Horn of Africa and perhaps the world will be relatively more peaceful, now that Osama Bin Laden is dead.

Abele Abate is an intern in the African Conflict Prevention Programme of the ISS, based in Addis Ababa. Special thanks to Solomon A. Dersso and Berouk Mesfin

East Africa: What's Next for Al-Qaida in the Horn of Africa?

The news was a relief for many people across the world including those who have suffered from al-Qaida's indiscriminate killings and injuries in the Horn of Africa.

One can never be entirely certain, but we can hope that the Horn of Africa and perhaps the world will be relatively more peaceful, now that Osama Bin Laden is dead.

Abele Abate is an intern in the African Conflict Prevention Programme of the ISS, based in Addis Ababa. Special thanks to Solomon A. Dersso and Berouk Mesfin