Monday, May 6, 2013

Egypt: inclusive transitional government is Must to overcome its problem 2012

One of my friends recently retweeted "So Mubarak (is) out, Morsi (is) in jail, ElBaradei (is) in Vienna, hello 2010 Egypt". Yes, many things seem are going back to a time before the 2011 popular revolution in Egypt. State power that seemed to be departed from its traditional hands for one year during Muslim Brotherhood leadership is now returned back with the military, where it used to reside for the last several decades. Yes, Muslim Brotherhood has once again become the most prosecuted party in the country. There is an ongoing widespread oppression and repression against Muslim Brotherhood, even sometimes, with a larger scale of cruelty more than the previous regimes. 
However, one thing that would not be same hereafter in Egypt is the longstanding faith and conviction of Brotherhood for peaceful and democratic political engagement in the country.
The vast majority of Muslim Brotherhood leaders including former President Mohammed Morsi and Mohamed Badie, the spiritual head of the Muslim Brotherhood are now in jail. Hundreds if not thousands of Brotherhood supporters have been killed and several others injured after the army moved to disperse Brotherhood supporters from their sit-ins in the Cairo suburbs, in mid August. State Medias have been also tirelessly trying to portray Muslim Brotherhood as the enemy of the state.
More unfortunately the international community and dominant powers that are perceived as the guardians of world’s democracy failed to put pressure on the Egyptian military which has been breaching every major principles of democracy from ousting the first democratically elected leader in Egyptian history to the killing of several hundred innocent civilians in a broad day light because the world has deep suspicion for political Islam.
The silence of the international community amidst of these atrocities has been leading the country to the brink of sectarian violence & national strife. The ouster of President Mohammed Morsi and the ongoing crackdown on Muslim Brothers ultimately will neither serve seculars nor the moderate Islamists, rather extremely radical groups including Alqaeda that got pissed off by the Islamists decision to engage in peaceful and democratic election mainly after the popular Arab Spring.
Soon we may witness an increasing reprisal attacks on the military posts as we are witnessing along Sinai and on other government institutions as many Islamist groups have been losing total hope from powers that are coming out of ballot boxes. 
Ironically some analysts tried to justify the measures taken by the army claiming Mr. Mossi & his party was utterly incompetent & inefficient, from handing the economy to foreign policy and fighting the rampant corruption across the country, for this the party lost legitimacy among nationals. Therefore, according to them, if not endorsed the move should not be condemned.
However I would argue that these people often miss the point that Muslim Brotherhood was in power for a chaotic one year alone. One definitely needs to aspire to have a magic stick rather than effective policies to get rid all the messes erupted during the several predecessors in single year. Either by hook or crook, these people also often misses the role of the military and the remnants of the Mubarak regime that had been tirelessly working to discredit Brotherhood in the face of its people & the international community by sabotaging its effort.  
When we take a look the bigger picture, whether Mr. Mohammed Morsi and his party were competent or not they definitely had a legitimate right to finish their term, not only to execute their policies and programs, but also because that is the only way to establish a vibrant and stable democracy.
If we take a look a seemingly far example, President George W. Bush and President Nicolas Sarkozy had been widely criticized for being totally incompetent and undemocratic during their rule. However, removing them from office prior to their term expired was not an option at all. Imagine what would have happened if they were removed by force and got imprisoned. And imagine what course the democracies of the two countries would take after that.
At this specific period of time, emotionalism seems exceeding rationalism across Egypt. That is why most of the people seem to embrace street politics than focusing on how to establish a stable and efficient post-totalitarian democracy.
The interim government led by the former supreme constitutional court, Adli Mansour announced to follow the exact same step that had been applied after the downfall of President Hosni Mubarak: prepare a draft constitution, hold national election and hand over power to the party that will get the most votes. However, such process that achieved neither peace nor democracy two years ago is yet still mysterious how it will bring the most objectives at this time.
In a country like Egypt, where suspicion is widely surfaced and anger reached at boiling point, one should seek an amicable solution that would make every ones voices to be heard and satisfied, at least in relative terms.
However, election by its nature has the tendency of making one a winner and the other the loser. This is the major point Egypt needs to avoid at this critical time. It is very easy to predict that the supporters of the losing candidates will go out once more to the streets after the next election, as street politics is becoming a fashion in these days. We might then see another round of revolution for the third time.
Therefore, Egyptians need to have an inclusive transitional government with the representations of all major political parties and religious institutions at least until the dust will be settled, if they are serious enough for the peace and security of the nation. Powers need to be dispersed among the member parties, and the Brotherhood needs to get the most power and some important key posts as it was the one that got the most votes in the previous national election and as it is the most organized party in Egypt.
Most importantly the military should be sidelined from the country’s politics and should be deprived from considering itself as the guardian of the Egyptian nation once and for all. The state shall also concentrate to nurture and empower the constitution and institutions side by side.  Unless and otherwise it would be a vicious circle where Egypt will keep trying the same method while expecting different result in the near future as well.


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