Since
the illness of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was reported for the first
time in July 2012, we have heard of several speculations and analyses about alleged
political quagmire and deep division within the ruling Ethiopian People
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Some analysts even went too far to
predict that the country was on the brink of disintegration claiming the
‘internal feud within the party and the absence of clear successor as the late
premier was the alpha and omega decision maker and the master mind of all
activities’.
Supportive Ground
However,
the reverse is happening since the death of PM Meles Zenawi back to 20 August
2012. In line with the constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia (FDRE) article 75, the Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn took
the duties of Mr. Meles immediately until his assignment was officially endorsed
by the national parliament on 21 September 2012. The stalemate in bureaucracy,
significant security problem and allegedly deep fracture within the party, the
state and the government has not been seen so far. There may be several reasons
for the peaceful and constitutional nature of power transfer that has happened
for the first time in the country’s modern history. However, the increasing
maturity of the democratic institutions (DIs) including the House of Peoples’
Representative and the House of Federations’, the willingness and commitment
shown by many senior government officials to preserve the constitution and the decentralization of power and authority
with the regions and lower forms of administrations contributed a lot to this
effect.
On
16 October 2012, the newly appointed Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn responds
on the questions raised from the members of the House of Peoples’
Representatives.. The new Prime Minister had refreshing and masterly answers to
concerns about a wide range of issues including the soaring inflation, the Nile
dam project, quality of education, the planned railway project and good
governance. In his presentation, the Premier admitted inflation persists as one
of the major challenges of his administration. Regarding the Nile dam project
he said more than 11 percent of the project had been executed and the project would
be finalized according to plan. He also granted lack of good governance as
being a major challenge for his administration.
If
we compare the first days of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn with the
long-time performance of his predecessor, (since comparison is unavoidable),
differences are a matter of reality. The obvious difference has to do with
personal traits. Furthermore, when a huge and significant difference in several
aspects. Mr. Meles was assigned as the President of the Transitional Government
of Ethiopia in 1991, the main priorities of the general public towards the
government were merely very basic ones, including the need to end the arbitrary
killings and massive imprisonment without any trial, to ensure a relative peace
and stability across the country, to defuse tensions and conflicts across the
country mainly along ethic and ideological lines and most importantly to save
the country from explosion and disintegration into many pieces.
Of
course, the late Premier achieved astonishing results in many aspects of the
above mentioned areas and beyond. He tried to establish ‘free and fair’ justice
system at least in relative terms. We don’t often hear now imprisonments
without the court knowledge and arrest warrant issued. Of course, we often hear
imprisonments along political lines and for simply exercising constitutional
rights. It is also obvious that the procedures on their own only do not prevent
illegal activities absolutely; rather, accountability in the administration of
justice remains a valid concern.
In
terms of ensuring peace and stability, the late Premier has a great deal to his
credit. Today, Ethiopia is considered one of the safest places in Africa by
many foreigners and diplomatic communities. The pacification work has been done
on two tracks. One was through establishing and developing a capable security
force to avoid and mitigate possible attacks by the armed groups within or
outside the country. In this regard, the country has achieved commendable
results mainly after the surprising attack of the Eritrean government back in
1998. Since then the Defense Ministry has been advancing itself both in
manpower and technologies. The other method employed was through dialogue and
negotiation with the opposition groups and armed rebels across the country. For
this mission, the Meles administration has used religious leaders and local
elders as the main peace brokers.
Meles
was also successful in defusing ethnic tensions significantly in the past two
decades. The Federal form of government that puts in place the organizing
principles of the Constitution in 1995 contributed a lot for this effect. Since
then the power accumulated in the hands of the central government have been devolved
to the regional states and city administrations with a relative freedom of self
administration. Different ethnic groups also have gained their right to be
judged, schooled through their chosen means of communication and develop their
languages alongside promoting their cultures. The country which was expected to
explode with the problem of ethnicity twenty years ago is successfully managed
to mitigate the problem under Meles administration.
Meles
was also very successful in crafting a new form of developmental state ideology
that pulls millions of people out of severe poverty. The success registered
with micro and small scale industries, the double digit economic growth
registered for the past eight years, the inception and execution of large scale
projects (like hydro-electric dams) are the few that can be mentioned as
positive developments under PM Meles Zenawi’s achievements
which have been reinforced by perceptions of world leaders as an inspirational
and iconic de-facto leader of Africa.
Challenges
The
new Prime Minister has taken over a totally different Ethiopia compared to its
conditions in the early ‘90s. Today’s Ethiopia is not a hopeless, shattered
state with poverty and brutal dictatorship. Rather; it is the country with
promising future in economy, democracy and social development. Therefore, the
expectations are also big and different by now. Now the demand is not about
ending arbitrary killings and massacre across the country as it was when Mr.
Meles, took the helm of power, but to ensure further openness, accountability
and rule of law in the country. Ensuring good governance mainly in the lower
forms of government administrations and combating corruption towards it
elimination are also the other major expectation of the new Premier alongside with
effective and democratic handlings of religious and ethnic based demands.
Today,
PM Hailemariam is not expected only to bring bread for the survival of the
population for a single day rather to maintain or increase the double digit
economic growth and fair distribution of wealth among the society. The new
Premier is expected to further reduce the rate of inflation in the coming few
months. As Mr. Hailemariam has a burden of effectively executing the blueprints
of the late Premier, such as the ambitious plan (widely known as the Growth and
Transformation Plan) People are also expecting him to adopt his own big
development projects that would effectively reflect his legacy in the future. Equally
important is the fact that people in and outside Ethiopia will eager to watch
how PM Hailemariam maintains an enhanced posture attained by the late Premier
on the regional, continental and international planes with particular reference
to Ethiopia’s role in the Inter governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
the African Union the United Nations.
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