Last month the International Crisis Group (ICG)
presented a report on future scenarios for Eritrea, whose repressive
government has shown recent signs of instability. According to this
report, the Ethiopian army incursions in 2012 revealed Eritrea's
capacity to defend itself is at its weakest since its independence in
1993.
ICG said several defections - from ordinary
citizens to elite pilots, and Information minister Ali Abdu, a close
ally of President Isaias Afeworki - and a mutiny by soldiers who took
control of the Information Ministry, are just some of the incidents in
one year alone that show how the regime in Asmara is becoming fragile.
The report urged the international community to
pay more attention to Eritrea, which has remained mobilised for war
since a ceasefire ended its conflict with Ethiopia in 2000, and to plan
to help avert internal chaos and wider regional conflict in the event of
a further breakdown of order in Asmara.
However, Ethiopia, which remains in conflict with
Asmara, does not seem interested in confronting the Eritrean government
at this critical time where it is becoming evident that a regime change
in Asmara is fast approaching, either with a natural death of the
67-year-old ailing President or in a more violent way such as coup
d’état.
On December 5, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn
told Qatar's Al Jazeera network that he is willing to negotiate with
his counterpart, President Isaias, without any precondition, even if it
takes him to Asmara. Hailemariam also noted that his predecessor had
made the same offer to Eritrean regime several times to no avail.
According to reports, President Isaias asked Qatar
to negotiate between the two arch rivals shortly after Hailemariam’s
statement. If true, this is a surprise because all previous requests
made by Ethiopia for dialogue had been rejected by Asmara in protest at
Ethiopia’s refusal to implement the United Nations ruling that puts the
flashpoint town of Badme in Eritrea.
Not ignored
Notably, in April this year, a week after
President Isaias visited Qatar and held talks with Sheikh Hamed Bin
Khalifa Al-Thani, Emir, the Emir paid a two-day official visit to
Ethiopia. Although officially the visit was to boost bilateral
relations, the issue of Ethiopia and Eritrea was unlikely to be ignored
in such a high-level meeting, especially as Qatar is striving to become
an internationally-recognised peacemaker.
The 2011 Arab uprising that toppled a number of
dictators across the Middle East and North Africa has impacted Eritrea
enormously. Before the revolution, Eritrea had three important friends
even if the regime was isolated by most of the countries in the region
and beyond. These countries were Libya, Egypt and Qatar.
To win the race to become an influential figure in
the region and the African Union with Ethiopia and the late Prime
Minister Meles Zenawi, the former Libyan ruler, Muammar Gaddafi provided
Eritrea all round support. Between the years 1998-2010 Libya has given
hundreds of millions of dollars to Eritrea to help to improve its ailing
economy.
Libya under Gaddafi has also showed its support to
Eritrea in being the only security council member state in voting
against the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1907, adopted on
December 23, 2009, which imposed an arms embargo on Eritrea, travel bans
on its leaders, and froze the assets of some of the country's political
and military officials.
This was after the Eritrean government was accused
of aiding Al-Shabaab in Somalia and reportedly refusing to withdraw
troops from its disputed border with Djibouti, following a conflict in
2008 even if the African Union, the IGAD and other organisations which
Libya itself is a member had been calling in favour of the resolution.
In return Eritrea had been supporting Gaddafi in
all the time and denouncing the revolution against him labelling it as a
Western plot against the will of the Libyan people and this in the long
run has also negatively affected its relation with the new Libyan
government established after the downfall of Gaddafi.
As unacceptable
Egypt under Hosni Mubarak had also been supporting
Eritrea for the mere reason of avoiding the perceived threat on the
river Nile. Eritrea has also reiterated its support for the Egyptian
claim of its rights over the river emanating mainly from the
controversial 1929 and 1959 agreements which Ethiopia regards as
unacceptable on the ground that the 1929 pact is colonial and the 1959
one is unilateral Egyptian and Sudanese ploy which had been rejected by
Ethiopia outright.
However the new Egyptian administration seems more
interested in negotiation and cooperation with Ethiopia than trying to
threaten Ethiopia using Eritrea. The previous relationship between
President Mubarak and President Isaias also negatively affected the
current Egypt-Eritrean relationship significantly as the later
reiterated its support to the former even at the midst of Egyptian
revolution at 2011.
The last friend Eritrea now has is therefore
Qatar. Eritrea and Qatar have long standing relations since decades ago
since Eritrea attained its independence in 1993. However, Qatar-Ethiopia
relations were not so good. On April 21, 2008, Ethiopia announced it
was severing ties with Qatar, accusing Qatar of supporting armed
opposition groups within Ethiopia and others such as Islamist insurgents
in Somalia.
This also created a conducive environment to
Eritrea to enjoy the friendship with Qatar as the latter has been
becoming one of the most influential countries in the region especially
in the last couple of years.
However, during the Arab uprising their
commendable relationship started to show fracture as Qatar was a main
advocate of a regime change in Libya, Eritrea remained loyal to Gaddafi.
For many analysts this was the first, perhaps also the most contentious
issue that started to make a rift between the two countries.
In addition to this the ever increasing
influential role of Ethiopia in the region and the African Union also
pushed Qatar to seek an amicable solution for the diplomatic row between
the two states. The two countries have expressed their wish to conduct
diplomatic relations and work together in regional issues with mutual
consent and cooperation during the Qatari emir visit to Addis Ababa on
April 10, 2013.
Only country
In considering the above facts it is clear that
Qatar has a big role in resolving the problem between the two countries
once and for all. The Eritrean regime may make some retreats from its
preconditions and push forward to settle its dispute with Ethiopia if
Qatar insisted as it is now the only country in the world to have
amicable relations with Asmara.
Qatar can also influence Ethiopia as Ethiopia is
very aware of the increasing role and influence of Qatar in regional and
international affairs.
The normalisation of relations with Ethiopia would
definitely help Asmara in improving its relationship with important
regional and international organizations in which Ethiopia’s influence
is seen quite crucial, like IGAD and the AU. It will also give Eritrea
the chance to exploit the big market inside Ethiopia.
Peace with Eritrea would also bring some important
benefits to Ethiopia mainly in providing access to well established
ports of Assab and Massawa. Due to the high cost of trade, Ethiopia has
been looking for alternative port services to Djibouti.
Peace between the two countries would also help to improve the security situation of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
But most importantly, peace between the two
countries would benefit the citizens who share the same culture,
religion and identity. Other peace dividends would be redirecting
military spending in both states towards critical areas such as health
and education.
Abel Abate Demissie is a Researcher and Political Analyst. He can be reached through abel.eiipd@gmail.com